Discover TikTok's true impact with a Geo Lift Test

The marketing landscape has undergone a significant transformation in recent years. The rise of new media channels has led to more complex customer journeys, with consumers moving from online to offline and through various channels and devices before making a purchase.

The plot thickened with an increase in policies and regulations surrounding data privacy. The bottom line? While marketers now have more ways than ever to reach potential customers, measuring the effectiveness of each marketing channel has become a true challenge.

We know you know, and we're here to help.

Everything changed, measurement methods stayed behind

The increased interconnectivity across media and devices hasn't been translated into updated measurement approaches. Given that conversions often occur post-view, across multiple devices or early in the customer journey, measurement methods based on click attribution, single touch attribution or site-side approaches, are inadequate for capturing true impact. This means that last-click measurement as a stand-alone attribution model tells an incomplete story.

Recent data reveals the extent of this misattribution, with examples such as 60% of revenue being misattributed when relying on pixels alone, as observed by Fospha.

TikTok's true impact is not reflected when measured by last click analytic tools

Over the past 3 years, TikTok's unique shopping experience has revolutionized the way people shop, with community-driven trends like #TikTokMadeMeBuyIt inspiring people to discover and share the products they love. TikTok has created a new, community-based on discovery driven shopping culture that regularly sends products flying off shelves.

However, even though TikTok has an undeniable impact on purchase decisions, as a view-focused platform, approximately 79% of conversions are misattributed when measured by last click analytic tools (1). This mainly stems from the fact that TikTok users don't make immediate purchases; the process can extend over weeks and even months, creating an undervaled gap between TikTok's true impact on brand sales and its measured impact.

In order to see the full picture, it is essential that marketers apply new incremental measurement strategies, such as Geo Lift Tests.

The benefits of a Geo Lift Test

Geo Lift Test is an incremental measurement test that utilizes machine learning and statistical techniques in order to investigate the causal relationship between two variables, by using geographical locations to create treatment and control groups. When done right, it can provide accurate results while still protecting user's privacy, and can help marketers understand the true value of the platform by answering some key questions:

1. Is TikTok driving conversions/revenue/ROAS that would not have occurred otherwise?

2. Is TikTok being under-attributed by last click analytic tools?

3. What other channels are being attributed instead of TikTok?

Unravelling TikTok's incremental value

During the past six months, we have conducted 3 separate Geo Lift Tests to prove TikTok's incremental value. We partnered with three brands to conduct the tests: James Allen and Tenengroup, both ecommerce jewellery retailers, and Fiverr, a multinational online marketplace for freelance business-to-business services.

Within the 3 week experiments, the primary target market, the United States, was segmented into two groups: a control group and a treatment group. Within the treatment group, substantial media budget increases were implemented. James Allen focused on optimizing for View Shopping Cart, while Tenengroup focused on incremental revenue lift and Fiverr focused on an incremental lift in first time buyers (FTBs).

Then, through the application of statistical analysis and machine learning techniques, the team successfully established that TikTok, indeed, delivered a notable incremental increase for all three clients at a significantly lower cost than expected..

James Allen Geo Lift Test results:

Tenengroup Geo Lift Test results:

Fiverr Geo Lift Test results:

Upgraded performance starts with upgraded measurement

The results of our Geo Lift Tests paint a clear picture: TikTok's value is misrepresented when using popular analytics tools. For marketers, this misrepresentation can translate into missed opportunities for brands and a loss of revenue.

New channels call for new measures which is why we recommend deploying new measurement methods in order to have clear visibility on how TikTok impacts sales. This full picture will enable better informed decisions in media planning and budget allocation.

Sources:

(1) TikTok Marketing Science Post-Purchase Analysis conducted by KnoCommerce, 2022